Russian oil production is expected to reach its lowest level since 2009 in 2026, according to forecasts by Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov. This year, production is projected to be 494 million tons, a 3.4% decrease compared to the previous year. Reshetnikov mentioned that production is expected to gradually rise to 500 million tons in 2027 and 505 million tons in 2028-2029. However, these figures would still be lower than the 511 million tons produced in 2025. Russia has attributed the decline in production to "unforeseen maintenance work in refineries," according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. However, Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly impacted Russia's energy infrastructure. This week, two major refineries—Kuybyshev, which belongs to Rosneft, and the one in Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov region—were forced to halt production after being struck. Since early September, seven refineries have been shut down in Russia, including the Moscow refinery, which is owned by Gazprom. The damage to refineries has led Moscow to impose a ban on diesel exports, which is set to expire on Wednesday, September 30. The Kremlin is reportedly considering extending the ban to ensure that domestic fuel supply remains stable. The oil and gas sector's share of Russia's GDP has dropped significantly since 2022, largely due to international sanctions and damage from Ukrainian strikes. Last year, energy accounted for 13% of the country's GDP, down from 20% in 2022. This decline highlights the sector's reduced importance to the Russian economy amid ongoing challenges.