A leading UK polling expert, Sir John Curtice, has warned that Prime Minister Andy Burnham might be taking a calculated risk by considering an early general election. His concern is that Reform UK, despite recent difficulties, could still end up as the largest party in Parliament. Reform UK has faced a drop in public support and is dealing with scandals and an ongoing police investigation into its donations. However, it remains a strong political force that could challenge Labour's majority. Reform UK recently received a significant financial boost for its election campaign through a £36 million donation from Ben Delo, a British cryptocurrency entrepreneur. This injection of funds has helped the party maintain its presence in the political landscape. Recent polling by YouGov suggests a close race among the three major parties, with Reform UK and Labour both at 23 percent, and the Conservatives at 20 percent. Although Reform UK had a nine-point lead over Labour a year ago, it has since seen a noticeable decline in support. Sir John Curtice pointed out that Labour's loss of support since 2024 has been most visible in constituencies they previously won, a trend similar to what the Conservative Party experienced in 2024. This pattern could allow Reform UK to gain more parliamentary seats even if their overall vote share is only slightly higher than Labour's. Curtice emphasized that Reform UK's support is "geographically evenly spread," which could be advantageous if they are leading by a narrow margin. Curtice also expressed concerns that holding an early election could cost Labour many of its current MPs. He suggested that Burnham, who has been prime minister for only three years, would be risking those three years in office to gain just two more. In response, a Reform UK spokesperson stated that Burnham is likely aware of the potential threat Reform UK poses and is unlikely to call an early election.