Trade with the U.S. hits a low

According to official Canadian statistics, 1,030 billion Canadian dollars worth of goods were exchanged with the United States last year. This is the lowest figure since 2021, the year of post-Covid recovery, after trade had collapsed by 13.4% in 2020.

Trade growth with the U.S. lags behind others

The trade volume is increasing this year, but this increase hides a growth much lower than that with the rest of the world. Compared to other trading partners of Ottawa, Canadian trade with the United States is relatively stagnant.

U.S. trade share declines

Indeed, it has increased by 6.2% during the period January-August, i.e. 43 billion Canadian dollars more than last year, but the increase with the rest of the world reaches 19.7%. Trade with the Union has also experienced a surge of 14.4% during the same period.

U.S. trade policies impact Canada

Direct consequence of the aggressive trade policy of the Trump administration, which threatened to annex Canada on several occasions and imposed massive tariffs on products from the country, the share of the United States in Canadian external trade has declined since 2025. The United States now account for only 63% of Canada's cumulative exports and imports over the last twelve months, compared to 69% in 2024.

Canada seeks trade diversification

This decline is not merely conjunctural: by the end of September, Canadian Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon explained that the government was guided by « the imperative to diversify [its] foreign markets, to [diversify] by moving away from the United States ». The government of Mark Carney has thus presented a comprehensive bill aimed at developing its trade with Europe and Asia, notably through the elimination of administrative formalities in order to accelerate the construction of new transport infrastructure, such as « national trade corridors » towards the Pacific ports and the Saint-Lawrence maritime route.

Canada and Europe plan closer trade ties

This development could notably involve strengthening trade with the Union. According to a joint statement draft for the European Union-Canada summit which opened today, Thursday, October 29, in Montreal, Ottawa and Brussels plan to strengthen links between Canadian and European ports in order to support trade diversification. The document mentions notably corridors for critical raw materials and energy, the launch of dialogues on transport and the Arctic, as well as a feasibility study on Canadian liquefied natural gas exports to Europe.

Canada's exports to China grow rapidly

The « decoupling » of Canada from the American economy also involves a significant increase in exports to China: +52% over the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2024. Mark Carney has thus already covered nearly half the distance towards the target announced in 2025 of doubling exports to non-US markets over the next decade.