Trump and Carney discuss trade deal

Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have reopened the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and Canada after a conversation on November 1. Trump also mentioned the potential revival of the Keystone XL pipeline project.

Constructive dialogue and next steps

Mark Carney described the exchange as constructive and said teams from both countries would work in the coming weeks on an agreement. Ottawa has outlined three main goals: employment, purchasing power, and respect for Canadian sovereignty, including its languages and culture.

Mid-term elections and tariff sensitivity

The political timing is significant, as the U.S. mid-term elections are scheduled for November 3. Tariffs have become a sensitive issue in several industrial and agricultural states near the Canadian border. Trump suggested the compromise would benefit American farmers by possibly removing tariffs on agricultural exports, but these are still under negotiation.

Keystone XL pipeline and its status

Trump tied the idea of a new trade deal to the potential return of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was meant to transport Canadian oil to the U.S. The project was halted in 2021 after the necessary presidential permit was revoked. While Trump now mentions a restart, the route, financing, and approvals remain unresolved.

Alternative pipeline project in development

Meanwhile, South Bow, an infrastructure company, is exploring a separate project called Prairie Connector, which may use existing equipment. A decision on investment is expected by 2027. Mentioning Keystone XL in the discussions does not mean the project will be built.

Canada and EU strengthen economic ties

Canada is also a key trade partner of the European Union. On October 30, the European Investment Bank and the Canadian government signed a framework agreement to potentially fund Canadian projects, especially in critical minerals. Each project will still need individual approval.

Impact on European industries

For French and European industrialists, the stability of North American supply chains and the diversification of raw material sources are important. A reduction in tensions between the U.S. and Canada could help businesses in these markets. However, the actual effects on prices in France will depend on the specific measures taken and the sectors involved.