TPLF leader claims tactical victories

One month after the resumption of fighting in northern Ethiopia, the leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Debretsion Gebremichael, stated on October 22, 2026, that his forces continued the clashes against the federal army and had achieved recent tactical victories. In a speech broadcast by the local television of Tigray, he assured that Tigray fighters continued to resist, despite military setbacks suffered by the movement.

Government regains control of Mekele

The Ethiopian government had indeed regained control of Mekele, the regional capital, on October 4, as well as several strategic positions. However, TPLF forces withdrew from the city, without ending the fighting in rural areas. Last week, the TPLF also claimed to have neutralized several hundred federal soldiers during clashes in the north and center of Tigray. This figure, provided by the movement, remains to be independently confirmed.

Resumption of large-scale hostilities

Hostilities resumed on a large scale on September 22, 2026, after several weeks of tensions and clashes in northern Ethiopia. The military escalation further weakened the Pretoria agreement, signed on November 2, 2022, under the auspices of the African Union to end the war between Ethiopian federal forces and the TPLF. Fighting has spread to several border areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. The Tigrayan movement and federal authorities have mutually accused each other of having initiated the hostilities.

Conflict rooted in political struggle

The conflict is part of a long power struggle between the federal government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades within the ruling coalition before Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. Tensions intensified in 2020, when the federal government postponed national elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The TPLF challenged this decision, arguing that the central government was losing legitimacy, and then organized regional elections in Tigray despite federal authorities' opposition.

Military offensive and humanitarian crisis

Relations between the two sides then deteriorated significantly. On November 4, 2020, the Ethiopian government launched a military offensive in Tigray after accusing Tigrayan forces of attacking a federal military base. The TPLF disputed the version of events presented by the authorities. The conflict from 2020 to 2022 caused a humanitarian and human catastrophe. The fighting involved Ethiopian federal forces, Tigrayan forces, Eritrean forces, and combatants from other regions of the country.

Ceasefire and unresolved challenges

After two years of violence, a ceasefire agreement was signed in Pretoria, South Africa, on November 2, 2022, under the auspices of the African Union. The human toll remains difficult to determine precisely. Some estimates suggest several hundred thousand deaths, notably due to fighting, famine, and lack of access to medical care. Several reports estimate that the conflict caused between 600,000 and 800,000 deaths. The war also caused mass displacement of the population. Millions of people were forced to flee their homes, while humanitarian needs remained significant after the signing of the peace agreement.