High cyclone risk in French Polynesia

French Polynesia is facing an exceptionally high cyclone risk due to an intense El Niño event, which is expected to strengthen until November-December. The Society Islands and the Tuamotu are particularly vulnerable, with forecasts indicating a hot season marked by cyclones, torrential rains, floods, and landslides.

El Niño's growing influence

Victoire Laurent, director of Météo-France in French Polynesia, described the El Niño phenomenon as "something we have never seen before." The event is expected to intensify until November-December and continue until February, raising concerns about the 2026-2027 warm season and the potential for powerful cyclones.

Cyclone conditions and uncertainties

While exceptionally warm ocean waters provide energy for cyclones, atmospheric conditions are still uncertain. This means that while cyclones have the potential to form and be powerful, it is unclear whether they will develop and directly affect French Polynesia. The Society Islands and parts of the Tuamotu are considered the most exposed.

Regional weather contrasts

El Niño could lead to significant weather contrasts across French Polynesia. The Society Islands and Marquesas may experience more heat, humidity, and heavy rain, while the Australes could face drier conditions. These changes, combined with marine heatwaves, pose additional challenges for the region.

Focus on heavy rain risks

Civil protection authorities are particularly concerned about the risks of heavy rain, which can lead to floods, overflows, and landslides. Chloé Demeulenaere, head of cabinet of the high commissioner, warned that the damage from such events could be catastrophic, even without a direct cyclone hitting the islands.

Forgotten cyclone preparedness

Since the last cyclone, Oli, in 2010, an entire generation in French Polynesia has grown up without experiencing a cyclone. This has led to a loss of preparedness, with many people believing they are safe from such events. Civil protection officials stress the importance of rekindling vigilance and routine preparedness.

Enhanced preparedness measures

To address the risks, state services have strengthened their preparedness. Since August, local leaders, or tavana, have been trained in crisis management. The high commission has also ensured its command post can operate independently for seven days, even if communications or supplies are disrupted.

Call for immediate action

Authorities urge residents to prepare before it is too late. Météo-France monitors the cyclone basin and can detect threatening phenomena several days in advance. This time frame should be used to implement preparedness measures, not to discover them when a cyclone is already forming.

Cyclone preparedness guidelines

Residents are advised to check their homes for vulnerabilities, store emergency supplies, and follow official alerts. During a cyclone, staying safe indoors is crucial. After a cyclone passes, people should wait for official instructions before resuming normal activities and be cautious of hazards like fallen power lines or flooded areas.