Agricultural prices rose by 13% during the third quarter of 2026, as measured by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot index, which tracks the prices of 10 major crops. This marks the largest increase since the first quarter of 2022, when the index rose by 19.5% amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The recent surge in prices is attributed to growing concerns over worsening weather conditions and the rising frequency of extreme weather events, which are being worsened by El Niño. Scientists predict that this current El Niño could be among the strongest on record, with ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region—located in the central equatorial Pacific—already 3.1°C above the historical average, the highest deviation ever recorded. Agricultural prices are also being affected by a decline in Russian grain exports, which has accelerated since September. Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea grain terminals have significantly reduced Russian exports, which were 17% lower than Ukrainian exports between September 1 and September 20. At the same period last year, Russian exports were more than twice as high as Ukrainian ones. While the rise in agricultural commodity prices may not immediately translate into higher prices for consumers, it could contribute to inflation. This is especially true given the ongoing impact of high energy prices, which have been driven by the war in the Middle East. Between February and September, gasoline prices rose by nearly 50% in the United States, 35% in Indonesia and South Africa, 17% in China, and an average of 24% in the European Union. These increases are placing additional financial pressure on both households and farmers. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has disrupted the export of fertilizers from the Gulf, a major global producer of urea. As a result, wheat and corn planting has been less extensive this year. The process is straightforward: farmers who cannot afford to buy urea at the start of the planting season may reduce their use, switch to crops that require fewer resources, or choose not to plant at all. These decisions typically become visible in harvest data three to six months later and can influence consumer prices one to three months after that.