Wheat prices have reached their highest level in three years, but for US farmer Merrill Nielsen, who manages a 2,500-acre (1,010-hectare) farm in Kansas, the situation remains uncertain. Despite a 39% increase in future prices for bread-type wheat, Nielsen is grappling with record-high diesel fuel costs and unpredictable weather that destroyed his entire wheat crop in the spring. Drought conditions in the southern Great Plains have also made him consider planting less wheat than usual this season. The combination of rising input costs, erratic weather, and geopolitical tensions is creating a challenging growing season for US farmers. Even though wheat prices have increased, these factors are making it difficult to turn those higher prices into greater profits. Consumers, including bakers, millers, and grocery shoppers, may feel the effects of these challenges in the form of higher food prices. Droughts in both the US and Europe have reduced harvests, and a predicted "super" El Niño—a climate pattern involving warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific—could further impact wheat production. Joao Lampreia, a market strategist at Freedom24, warns that this weather phenomenon, worsened by the climate crisis, could bring "some alarming signals" for wheat crops in the southern hemisphere. Wheat supplies in major exporting countries are at their second-lowest level in recorded history, with Australia’s wheat plantings down 12% due to dry conditions and rising fertilizer costs. El Niño could bring more rain to the southern Great Plains in the fall and spring, as seen during the last major El Niño in 2015 and 2016, which led to a record winter wheat yield in the US. However, recent Russian attacks on Black Sea port facilities, a key route for global wheat trade, have disrupted grain shipments. Black Sea farmers, who had a large wheat harvest, are unable to export much of their crop, which has pushed prices higher. If Black Sea farmers and shippers find alternative routes, prices may decrease slightly, but it will take longer and cost more, according to Lampreia. Dan Basse, president of AgResource, warns that the combination of weather-damaged harvests and geopolitical issues affecting wheat exports could lead to even higher global food prices. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its food price index, which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities, rose 2.5% in August compared to the same period last year. Basse said the rise in wheat prices has effects that extend beyond the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. "The world needs more harvested acreage of every grain. All of this resonates in higher grain and food prices for the world looking forward," he said. In the near term, US farmers may need to help fill the global wheat supply gap. Basse expects that winter wheat planting in the US could increase by about 10% compared to last year as farmers try to take advantage of higher prices. However, the amount of wheat actually harvested in the US has been at its lowest level since 1877, as many farmers have found it more profitable to grow corn and soybeans instead of wheat. One year of high prices is unlikely to reverse this trend. Farmers need both higher production and strong prices to see real benefits. "If it’s not an average yield or better, the breakeven cost really gets high very quickly," said Mark Welch, an economist at Texas A&M University. Vance Ehmke, a wheat-seed seller in southwest Kansas, said he has been receiving more calls for seeds this year, but the dry weather in the southern Great Plains is making it difficult for seeds to germinate. "If you get your wheat up, you’ve got 90% to 95% odds that you’ll harvest something. But if you can’t even get it up, I mean, you’re just screwed," he said. Ehmke added that prices will need to stay high to offset the rising costs of inputs, which have been driven up by ongoing trade tensions. "We are the ones that get hurt by those policies," he said.