On 5 October 2026, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) published its annual report on regional financial stability, highlighting a correction in the artificial intelligence (AI) market as the first of several "key risks." The report noted that the region is "particularly exposed" because it is "located at the center of the global AI supply chain." Around the same time, Shinichi Uchida, Vice-Governor of the Bank of Japan, warned of a "risk of correction, if the profits do not follow." Earlier, on 30 September, the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) of the Bank of England released the minutes of its 25 September meeting, where debt financing for AI projects was a major topic of discussion. These developments indicate that concerns over AI-related financial risks have been growing in both Asia and Europe.
The FPC minutes revealed that in early September, Morgan Stanley estimated global debt emissions tied to AI to be around $450 billion, more than double the amount in 2025. Analysts from JP Morgan predicted that investment in AI, financed by debt, could reach approximately $4,100 billion between 2026 and 2030. According to Morgan Stanley, private credit would fund $700 billion of data center expenses from 2026 to 2028. In the United Kingdom, where AI-related debt is smaller compared to the U.S. and the euro zone, hyperscalers (large technology companies) accounted for 47% of corporate bond emissions in British pounds since the start of the year.
The FPC identified two main mechanisms of risk. First, the increasing debt of AI companies, combined with unclear financial arrangements, could make it harder to assess risks and potentially amplify losses if expectations are not met. Second, government budgets and economic growth projections depend in part on anticipated productivity gains from AI. If these expectations are revised downward, it could affect both the value of AI-related assets and sovereign debt markets. The committee referenced a recent event in July, when AI and semiconductor stocks fell sharply, forcing leveraged investors to sell quickly and suffer losses, though no major financial markets were affected. However, the committee warned that a more severe correction, with wider impacts, could still occur if profit expectations are revised.
At the Bank of Japan, AI has become a central topic in monetary policy discussions. Shinichi Uchida's speech at the ECONDAT conference on 5 October stated that AI "has become a key subject" in the bank's policy meetings. He described AI as a "significant positive demand shock" that is driving up both economic activity and prices. However, Uchida noted that while rising stock prices are easing financial conditions, the large-scale issuance of bonds by AI companies is increasing long-term interest rates and tightening financial conditions. He concluded that, for now, demand has been the dominant factor, making overall financial conditions more accommodative, but warned of a "risk of correction" if profits do not materialize. The speech did not outline specific policy responses or provide details on how such a correction might occur.
Financial Institutions Highlight Risks Linked to AI-Related Debt and Market Corrections
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