Five months after the EU signed a trade agreement with Mercosur, a South American trade bloc, Alexandre Gohin, an agro-economist at Inrae, has begun analyzing how this deal is affecting the European beef market. Since the agreement took effect in May, beef imports from Brazil have increased by about 40 percent. This has raised concerns among French cattle farmers, though it is still unclear how much this has influenced beef prices. Economic models suggest that the impact on French farmers is relatively small. Gohin explains that the rise in Brazilian beef imports might be due to an anticipation phenomenon. Starting September 3, Brazilian beef imports were temporarily halted due to concerns about the use of antimicrobials in farming. "Flows could have increased in anticipation of this deadline," he said. Imports from other Mercosur countries, such as Argentina and Paraguay, have remained steady during this period. Regardless of whether the increase is due to anticipation or not, the added supply has affected prices. "These additional volumes have certainly contributed to the decline in prices," Gohin estimates. Generally, a 1 percent increase in supply can reduce consumer prices by about 2 percent, and even more for farmers. Gohin emphasizes that the drop in prices cannot be attributed solely to the influx of Brazilian beef. Prices are influenced by many factors, such as shortages of feed for cattle, energy costs, and reduced consumer spending power. Gohin and Alan Matthews, another economist, have published a study in 2025 that attempts to measure the agreement's effects on various European agricultural sectors. Their research provides an initial understanding of the broader economic implications. The European Commission aimed to open markets to a maximum of 4 percent of European consumption through the agreement. However, the finalized deal includes a commercial quota of 99,000 téc, or 1.5 percent of the European market. According to economic simulations, this level of import would only slightly reduce the activity of the European beef industry by about 0.4 percent. In contrast, the agreement is expected to boost other sectors by increasing exports of European products such as cheese, wine, and spirits. Across all European agri-food sectors, the overall economic impact is estimated to be around 0.1 percent. Considering the agreement's broader effects on the economy and potential job creation in growing sectors, Gohin and Matthews estimate that European income could rise by 0.4 percent. The effects of the agreement vary by country, and Gohin notes that "the single market does not mean that prices follow everywhere in Europe." French consumers remain cautious about beef from Mercosur countries. "The volumes will first go to the German market," he predicts, while acknowledging the potential for a ripple effect. "We can imagine that the Irish will be affected, because they export a lot to Germany, and indirectly the French beef industry." A few months after the agreement took effect, the observed data align with a simple anticipation effect by importers. More time and analysis will be needed to determine whether Mercosur truly disrupts the European market or if, as suggested by economic models, its impact will ultimately remain minimal.