Event highlights Arab business opportunities

On Wednesday, October 14, the Franco-Arab Chamber of Commerce will host an event with the support of the Aix-Marseille-Provence Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The gathering will provide analyses and perspectives for regional businesses in the Arab world, featuring discussions on the current situation in Arab countries accessible to small and medium enterprises.

Gulf economies face mixed economic outlook

The year 2026 is marked by a paradox, with the effects of an oil shock mainly impacting Gulf exporters. Open conflict and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led the World Bank to predict a 4.3% GDP contraction for Gulf Cooperation Council countries, while oil importers in the region are expected to grow by the same percentage. Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are particularly affected due to their heavy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for exports.

Arab region remains attractive for investment

Despite the challenges, the Arab region continues to attract investment. Sovereign funds in the Gulf have maintained their investment pace, committing nearly 26 billion dollars between March and May, according to the General Directorate of Treasury. The World Bank anticipates a 10.3% rebound in the Gulf in 2027 if the conflict subsides by year-end. The Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia remain key markets due to their long-term development plans.

North African countries show growth potential

Closer to France, the Maghreb and Egypt offer opportunities due to their proximity and size. Morocco is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, aiming to become an industrial hub with projects related to the 2030 World Cup and renewable energy. Algeria is focusing on local production, while Egypt, the largest Arab market with 107 million people, remains promising despite inflation and currency pressures.

Risks and uncertainties persist

However, several risks remain, including a delayed Iran-US agreement and threats to the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. The World Bank warns that the Gulf's recovery is not guaranteed, with damaged infrastructure and delayed investments potentially affecting growth. A preliminary agreement between Iran and the US is the most likely scenario, but a resumption of conflict is possible, with a 30% probability according to BMI-Fitch.

Overall outlook remains positive

Despite these risks, the overall outlook remains favorable. The risks are concentrated in a few countries, while Saudi Arabia and Oman have diversified their export routes, and the Emirates hold substantial reserves. The solvency of major Gulf clients is stable, with continued investment from sovereign funds and a projected strong rebound in 2027 if the conflict eases. The crisis also creates new opportunities in defense, cybersecurity, and local production.

Franco-Arab Chamber of Commerce overview

The Franco-Arab Chamber of Commerce, established in 1970, is the only strictly paritarian institution covering all 22 countries of the Arab States League. Its board includes French companies and national Chambers of Commerce from the Maghreb, the Mashreq, and the Gulf. In 2025, the chamber published 43 watch letters, 28 press reviews, and launched The Observatory, a tool for tracking the region's geostrategic developments.

Upcoming economic summit highlights cooperation

The 7th France-Arab Countries Economic Summit, set for December 9 and 10, 2026 in Paris, will focus on strengthening Franco-Arab partnerships amid the region's challenges. The event will bring together business leaders, institutional representatives, and economic actors to discuss cooperation with the Maghreb, the Mashreq, and the Gulf. Sessions will cover the Arab world in 2026, collaboration strategies, and testimonies from companies, ambassadors, and consuls.