Oil hits highest level since May

The price of oil reached its highest level since May when the Strait of Hormuz was partially blocked, with markets fearing a new escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States. On Friday, the Brent crude oil price rose to $115, driven by concerns over repeated attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Arabia and potential new tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Rising prices and military tensions

Analysts from ING noted that information suggests President Trump is considering new military strikes against Iran, while the U.S. is increasing its military presence in the region. These developments, they said, make it harder to reduce tensions or return to normal oil flows, even after the U.S. mid-term elections on November 3. President Trump has claimed Iran is trying to raise oil prices before the elections, which are important for the Republican party.

Houthi attacks and regional instability

Another factor pushing oil prices up has been the increased attacks by the Houthis on Saudi civilian infrastructure, including oil sites and airports. These attacks have reached an unprecedented level since the start of the conflict in Yemen in 2014. With the Strait of Hormuz under tension, Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil through the Red Sea has become crucial for the oil market.

Uncertainty in oil supply and rising transport costs

Barbara Lambrecht, an analyst at Commerzbank, said there is a great deal of uncertainty about the current volume of oil available on the market. Meanwhile, the platform Kpler reported that oil exports from Gulf countries have returned to levels above pre-war levels. However, concerns remain that new attacks could disrupt production, processing, or export infrastructure. The cost of transporting oil has also become extremely high, with freight costs for shipping crude oil from the Gulf to China reaching nearly 25% of the price of a barrel.

European gas prices rise amid supply concerns

The European gas benchmark, the Dutch TTF futures contract, has reached its highest level since 2022, rising by 4.16% to 93.72 euros per megawatt-hour. Analysts note that low liquefied natural gas deliveries from the Gulf, recent attacks on a LNG carrier near Yemen, and low gas storage levels in Europe are contributing to rising prices. Damage to several Middle Eastern refineries is also limiting the production of gasoline and diesel, with a return to pre-war refining capacity not expected until the second quarter of 2027.