Le Pen leads in 2027 election poll

A recent survey by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche shows Marine Le Pen remains the top candidate for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, with 31 to 33.5% of those surveyed planning to support her. This is a slight drop from previous results in late August.

Survey details and methodology

The survey was conducted between October 14 and 16, 2026, involving 1,701 people in Metropolitan France who are 18 or older. Of these, 1,533 were registered to vote. The margin of error is between 1.2 and 2.8 percentage points, indicating the possible range of error in the results.

Three-way race for second round

The survey suggests a three-way race for the second round of the election among Edouard Philippe, Raphael Glucksmann, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Philippe, the former prime minister, has 15.5% to 16.5% in scenarios where he is the only candidate from the central bloc. Glucksmann, representing the social democratic camp, has gained 15 to 16.5% of voting intentions, up from the previous survey. Mélenchon also shows improvement, with 15 to 16% of the vote.

Other candidates trail behind

Other candidates are expected to receive less than 10% of the votes in the six scenarios considered. Bruno Retailleau, the president of the Republicans, is projected to get 6.5% to 9.5%. David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, is the only other candidate expected to surpass the 5% threshold, with 5.5 to 6.5%. On the left, Marine Tondelier of the Ecologists has 2.5 to 3.5%, while François Ruffin has 3%.

Le Pen's dominance in second round

In the second round, Marine Le Pen is projected to win regardless of her opponent. She would defeat Edouard Philippe with 52.5% of the votes and Raphael Glucksmann with 53.5%. Against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, her lead would be the largest, with 69% of the votes compared to Mélenchon's 31%.