A survey suggests Marine Le Pen would likely win the 2027 French presidential election in a runoff against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who trails significantly in first-round votes.
Survey predicts Le Pen’s victory in 2027 runoff
A survey by Harris Interactive for M6/RTL suggests that Marine Le Pen would likely win the 2027 French presidential election in a runoff against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The findings come after recent violence in France, with Mélenchon projected to reach the second round but lose decisively to Le Pen.Mélenchon leads first round but trails Le Pen
Mélenchon is expected to secure 17 to 19% of the votes in the first round, placing him ahead of Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, but significantly behind Le Pen, who leads with 33 to 35% of the vote.Vote transfers favor Le Pen in second round
In the second round, Le Pen would win comfortably against Mélenchon with 70% of the votes. Mélenchon would benefit from weak vote transfers, with only 6% of Philippe’s voters and 23% of Glucksmann’s voters shifting to him.Le Pen’s lead grows in other scenarios
Le Pen would also win against Philippe (57% vs 43%) or Glucksmann (59% vs 41%) in the second round, despite better vote transfers for these two candidates. David Lisnard is positioned ahead of Bruno Retailleau in other scenarios, with 7 to 8% of the vote compared to 4 to 5% for Retailleau.Survey has limitations and margin of error
The survey, conducted online from October 19 to 21, 2026, included 2,094 people registered on the electoral lists. It used quota and adjustment methods for variables like age and region, with a margin of error between 1 and 2.3 points. As with all opinion polls, it reflects a snapshot of public opinion at a specific time.
