Mélenchon and Le Pen reach second round in 2027 scenario

A survey by Ipsos-BVA-Cesi, published in Le Parisien, suggests that Jean-Luc Mélenchon of LFI and Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN) would both qualify for the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, regardless of the political situation. Mélenchon is projected to get 17% of the vote, while Le Pen is expected to receive between 32% and 33.5% of the votes.

Le Pen begins campaign in Orleans

Le Pen is set to hold her first campaign meeting in Orleans on Sunday, signaling the start of her electoral strategy for the 2027 election. This comes as her projected support remains strong in the latest survey.

Previous survey shows different dynamics

In a previous wave of the same survey conducted between August 31 and September 2, Mélenchon was only positioned to reach the second round in one scenario: if Gabriel Attal of Renaissance and Édouard Philippe of Horizons ran together for the centrist bloc. However, Philippe is now declining in current polls.

Philippe and Attal struggle in current polls

Philippe is now testing at 15% if running alone at the center, placing him behind Mélenchon. He is even equal with Raphaël Glucksmann of the social democratic party if Gabriel Attal runs at the same time. Gabriel Attal, on the other hand, falls below the 10% vote intention threshold, with 4% against Philippe and 9.5% alone at the center.

Glucksmann and Retailleau show modest support

Glucksmann would reach 15.5% of the votes if Attal ran alone. Bruno Retailleau of the Republicans (LR) would achieve his best score of 11.5% under the same hypothesis. David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes and a former LR member, tested in a configuration with Retailleau and without Attal, would get 6.5%, ahead of Retailleau's 5.5%.

Public reaction to recent violence

Regarding the violence on October 17, 81% of respondents hold the government responsible for the situation. When asked about their feelings about the violence, 58% of the French expressed anger, 37% anxiety, and 33% shame. Radical political groups were cited by 79% as responsible, followed by left parties at 62% and police forces at 52%.

Public opinion on Macron and leaders

Additionally, 80% of those surveyed believe President Emmanuel Macron has not had the right attitude in the past week, with 71% holding the same view of Mélenchon and only 43% of Le Pen. As with all opinion surveys, this poll is a snapshot of the moment and does not have predictive value.

Survey methodology and reliability

The survey was conducted online on October 21 and 22 among 1,500 people registered on the electoral lists, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method. The margin of error is between 0.7 and 2.5 points.