Introducing the concept of climatic mutation

Aykut and Dahan introduce the term "climatic mutation" to describe the complex interaction between climate change, geopolitical conflicts, economic shifts, and the fragility of democratic systems. This concept builds on their earlier work, Gouverner le climat?, where they introduced the idea of "reality schism" to describe the gap between climate negotiations and the forces driving global warming.

Historical context of climate governance

The book revisits the history of climate governance since the 1990s, a period that followed the Cold War and was marked by an international order based on science, multilateralism, and cooperation. However, the authors note that major climate agreements like Kyoto and Copenhagen faced challenges, leading to the Paris Agreement in 2015, which aimed to shift responsibility to societies and markets.

Expansion of climate governance

The authors describe a "dialogic movement between the globalization of climate and the climatization of the world," where the climate issue has expanded to include development, energy, inequality, and finance. This has led to what they call "obesity of governance," where negotiations have broadened without directly addressing economic and energy structures.

Shift in emission inequalities

According to the World Inequality Report, global emission inequalities have shifted from between countries in 1990 to within societies by 2023. This shift brings back discussions about social classes, inheritance, lifestyles, and the distribution of responsibility in addressing climate change.

Power dynamics in decarbonization

The authors argue that decarbonization is not an independent process but one that redistributes power and reshapes interdependencies between states. They examine the United States, a major center of climate science but also a hub of industrial resistance to climate policies, and China, which consumes much of the world's coal but leads in renewable energy deployment.

Climate change and democracy

The book explores the link between climate change and democracy, noting that democracies have the potential to lead the transformation. Europe is highlighted as a political laboratory, with the European Green Deal showing both promise and risk, as seen in the relaxation of bans on thermal vehicles by 2025.

Proposing a new European model

The authors suggest that the European Union must reinvent itself as a social and ecological state, with the success or failure of the Green Deal offering insights into the ability of liberal democracies to transition without reliance on fossil fuels or U.S. military support. They propose a "Global Green Deal" that combines cooperation, social and environmental standards, and conditional access to the European market.

Theoretical foundations and definitions

Drawing on Ulrich Beck and Bruno Latour, the authors describe the mutation as a fundamental upheaval affecting the "very forms of change," emphasizing a crisis of imagination about the future. They distinguish between transition, transformation, and mutation, with mutation representing the historical context in which transformation occurs.

Identifying key challenges

The final chapter outlines several "blockages" to climate action, including technological and economic inertia, weak global governance, political reliance on growth and fossil fuels, and consumer sovereignty. These challenges are compounded by geopolitical conflicts, inequalities, and polarization, making long-term solutions difficult to achieve.

Limitations and scope of the analysis

The concept of "climatic mutation" emphasizes interdependencies and feedback loops but makes it harder to establish clear cause-and-effect relationships. The authors frame their analysis from an European perspective, which raises questions about the applicability of their insights to other regions with different post-Cold War experiences. Despite its complexity, the book offers a thorough examination of the challenges and possibilities of the "climatic mutation."