COP31 in Antalya under scrutiny

As the COP31 climate conference approaches in Antalya, Turkey, amid worsening climate conditions, concerns grow about the effectiveness of United Nations climate summits. These annual meetings, held since 1995, bring together nearly 200 countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address global warming.

Limitations of climate agreements

Despite landmark agreements like the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015), these accords lack enforceable mechanisms. An UN report from November 2025 warns that current policies could lead to a global temperature rise of +2.8°C by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5°C target set in Paris.

Fossil fuel phase-out debate

At COP28 in Dubai, the issue of phasing out fossil fuels was finally discussed, but progress remains slow. Researchers Amy Dahan and Stefan Aykut argue that the COPs fail to address deep economic and geopolitical factors driving climate change, creating a gap between climate goals and real-world actions.

COPs as platforms for debate

Despite criticism, some view the COPs as vital arenas for climate discussion. For instance, the inclusion of small island nations and Southern countries in climate talks has amplified their voices. However, the presence of fossil fuel companies and their lobbyists at these events has raised concerns about their influence on outcomes.

Fossil diplomacy and economic interests

France’s support for oil company Total, despite its climate commitments, highlights tensions between economic interests and climate goals. Similar contradictions exist in other countries, where fossil fuel industries receive political backing, complicating efforts to transition to renewable energy.

Historical influence of fossil fuels

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has long been influenced by fossil fuel interests, with historical ties to the oil industry under leaders like Richard Nixon. Recent reports reveal that this influence has shaped the development of climate agreements, including the UNFCCC and subsequent COPs.

Blocking climate progress

Transparency International notes that powerful nations like the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia often block climate discussions. Tactics include defending the consensus decision-making process and funding working groups that delay progress. Over 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists were accredited to COP30, more than the number of delegates from the ten most vulnerable countries.

Alternative climate initiatives

In response to COP criticisms, an independent summit on phasing out fossil fuels was held in Colombia in 2026, co-organized by Colombia and the Netherlands. This event brought together 50 countries and civil society, though major powers like China and the United States did not attend.

Growing international movement

An international coalition promoting fossil fuel phase-out now includes 18 countries, ranging from small island states to oil producers. A major meeting after COP31 in 2027 will be co-organized by Tuvalu and Ireland, with France expected to participate.

Challenges in climate governance

Political and economic pressures continue to hinder progress. Ireland, for example, faces challenges from its powerful agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to its greenhouse gas emissions. The High Council for the Climate (HCC) calls for new international cooperation, emphasizing science-based diplomacy and just transition strategies.

Alternative approaches to COP reform

Critics suggest that international climate governance has failed to address the root causes of climate change. Alternative approaches, such as local mobilization and restructuring COP decision-making, are being explored. The Climate Action Network advocates for ending the consensus rule and banning lobbyists from official COP activities.

Proposed reforms for COPs

Stefan Aykut proposes reforms to make COPs more effective, including the creation of "industrial clubs" for decarbonized materials and partnerships with countries that produce critical minerals. He argues that COPs should focus on sector-specific treaties to address the material conditions of decarbonization.

Future of the fossil fuel era

As the fossil fuel era comes to an end, the transition may not bring peace but could reshape global power dynamics. The shift to renewable energy is expected to mix with ongoing conflicts, creating a new geopolitical landscape driven by climate action and resource competition.