Nearly 200 countries pledged during the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023 to move away from fossil fuels. However, global production of oil, coal, and gas has continued to rise, even as renewable energy sources have expanded. According to the annual report from The Energy Institute, a professional organization based in the United Kingdom, global energy supply increased by 1.7% in 2025. While renewable energy has been the main driver of this growth, fossil fuels still play a major role, accounting for 86% of the world’s total energy supply, the study notes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2024, fossil fuels made up 81% of the global energy mix, with oil contributing 30%, coal 28%, and gas 23%. In the United States, the world’s top producer of oil and gas, these two resources accounted for 36% of the energy mix each in 2024, with coal making up about 10%. In China, which consumes more than a quarter of the world’s energy, the mix was dominated by coal (60%), followed by oil (18%) and gas (8%). In Europe, nuclear power supplied 45% of the region’s energy in 2025, compared to 26% from oil and 11% from gas. France, in particular, stands out from its neighbor Germany, which relies more heavily on oil (35%), gas (28%), and coal (15%). Renewable energy is growing rapidly, especially due to the increasing use of electricity in various sectors. In 2025, global solar electricity production rose by 28%, now representing 8.5% of total electricity production, nearly matching the output of wind and nuclear power, according to an IEA report published in July. Renewable energy accounts for 23% of the world’s final energy consumption, according to the latest IEA data. However, most of this energy is still derived from fossil fuels—coal (34%) and gas (22%)—with renewables contributing 34%. While the growth of renewables may suggest that demand for coal, the main source of human-caused CO2 emissions, could peak by 2030, the situation is different for oil and gas, notes Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a researcher at CNRS and energy historian. He explains that the idea that the rise of one energy source will lead to an equal decline in others is a misconception. According to the latest IEA report, under current policies, coal demand is expected to begin declining before the end of this decade, but demand for oil and gas will continue to grow until 2050, increasing by 13% and 30%, respectively, between 2024 and 2050. At the start of COP31 in Turkey, three years after the compromise at COP28 in Dubai, the issue of phasing out fossil fuels is not on the official agenda. The topic was central and divisive during COP30 in Belém, Brazil, in 2025, according to Romain Ioualalen from the NGO Oil Change International, but it was not included in the final conclusions. Discussions at COP31 will focus mainly on electrification. "We need to moderate the importance of COPs," estimates Fressoz. "What is important is what is happening on the ground." Some countries, such as India or China, "do not speak much diplomatically but are making quite substantial efforts nationally," Ioualalen notes. Decisions are influenced by rising fossil fuel prices, supply chain challenges, and concerns about energy independence. "It is the market that dictates behavior," Fressoz states.