Historian warns of unprepared world

Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay published by The New York Times, argues that the world is entering a new phase to which its leaders, institutions, and citizens are not adequately prepared. The essay, first published on October 4 and republished on October 30, compares natural disasters with human affairs, suggesting that just as storms have warning signs, so too do global political and social changes.

Factors driving global change

MacMillan highlights several factors contributing to this shift, including asymmetric wars, climate disruption, and the AI revolution. She references the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which identified 65 conflicts involving states last year—a record since 1946. The war in Ukraine, which was expected to be short, has now entered its fifth year, and Iran has deployed cheap mass-produced drones to attack American forces and their allies.

Risks of artificial intelligence

The historian also points to the rapid rise of artificial intelligence without regulation, which threatens jobs, security, and potentially the existence of humanity. She mentions that developed economies have reached historical levels of debt, and the reduction of medical and food aid has caused avoidable deaths and contributed to the spread of diseases that could become new pandemics.

Historical parallels and lessons

MacMillan draws historical parallels, referencing the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution of 1917, and the rise of Hitler in Germany. She notes that in each case, the ruling elites failed to recognize the fragility of their regimes until it was too late. She also mentions the British government's response to pressure from the middle class in the 1820s, leading to the Great Reform Act of 1832, which expanded voting rights and avoided a more general crisis.

Erosion of the international order

The essay discusses the erosion of the international order that has existed for much of the 20th century, noting that the United States, once the guarantor of the post-1945 system, has renounced its role as a benevolent superpower under President Donald Trump. However, she suggests that other countries, including Canada, Australia, and Japan, are collaborating to fill the void left by the United States.

Uncertain future and need for adaptation

MacMillan also touches on the potential for a long period of disorder, where natural disasters, conflicts, and resource competition could lead to unpredictable outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of recognizing the severity of the current situation and adapting to the new reality, rather than clinging to the past.