Global order under strain

Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan wrote in The New York Times last September that the world is entering a "new era of disorder" in geopolitics, with the established global order eroding due to complacency and the acceptance of bad behavior.

Reference to literary warning

MacMillan draws a parallel to Albert Camus' novel Plague, where the people of Oran ignore early warnings about a deadly disease. She says the world today has "dead rats everywhere," referring to extreme weather, high debt, declining humanitarian aid, AI risks, populism, and weak international diplomacy.

Rising conflicts and revisionist powers

According to MacMillan, 65 state-related conflicts were recorded in 2025, the highest number since 1946. Great powers are now fighting asymmetric wars, with Russia's conflict in Ukraine now in its fifth year and Iran using drones to deplete American missile supplies and controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Shift in global leadership

MacMillan notes that the United States, once seen as a leader in maintaining international order, has changed under Donald Trump. She says the U.S. has moved away from the idea that democracy would eventually triumph, as suggested by Francis Fukuyama, leading to greater global uncertainty.

New coalitions and spheres of influence

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the post-Cold War world order as "Pax Americana," a "pleasant fiction," and urged countries like Canada, Australia, and Japan to form new alliances. The Financial Times reports that the U.S., China, and Russia are creating new spheres of influence, often to control natural resources.

Ongoing regional conflicts

An article from Tout s'explique highlights the ongoing civil war in the Tigré region of northern Ethiopia, which has lasted since 2020, showing how regional conflicts continue to complicate global stability.