France may see a notable rise in the number of doctors in the coming decades, according to a projection by the Drees, the statistical office of the Ministry of Health. The study, released on Tuesday, is based on a scenario where about 12,200 students continue to enter the second year of medical school each year, and 2,500 doctors trained outside the European Union (EU) are integrated into the healthcare system annually. Under this scenario, the number of interns and doctors under 70 years old in practice would reach approximately 351,300 by 2030, and rise to 464,200 by 2060. Currently, there are 261,800 doctors and medical students in France. The Drees also examined other scenarios. In one case, where no doctors trained outside the EU are integrated, the number of doctors in 2060 would still reach 400,800, representing a more than 50% increase from the current total. If the number of students entering the second year of medical school dropped to 9,200 in 2031, the number of doctors in 2060 would be slightly lower at 401,800. Conversely, if the number of students increased to 15,200 in 2031, the doctor count would nearly double to 527,700. The Drees emphasizes that these projections are not predictions but tools to analyze the potential impacts of different scenarios. Given the long duration of medical training—typically at least ten years—the agency notes that the medical workforce expected in 2040 is largely already determined by the current number of practicing doctors and medical students. This highlights the importance of current enrollment and retention rates in shaping the future of healthcare in France.