French study projects doctor numbers by 2070

A study from the Direction de la Recherche, des Études, de l’Évaluation et des Statistiques (Drees) predicts how many doctors and medical students there will be in France by 2070. It uses a model called ProMédI to estimate the number of practicing doctors under 70 years old each year from 2026 to 2070.

Doctor numbers expected to rise sharply

The study forecasts that by 2040, the number of practicing doctors and third-cycle medical students will reach 351,300. This is an increase of between 30% and 39% compared to 2025 levels, which stood at 261,800. The projection assumes 2,500 foreign-trained doctors enter the French workforce annually.

Long-term growth under current trends

If the number of students entering medical studies stays around 12,200 per year, the number of doctors and third-cycle medical students could reach 464,200 by 2060. This would be about a third more than in 2040 and three quarters more than in 2025.

Study available for public review

The full DREES study, which includes detailed assumptions and variations, is available for review through the provided link.