French study forecasts doctor numbers by 2070

A study by France’s Direction de la Recherche, des Études, de l’Évaluation et des Statistiques (Drees) predicts major shifts in the country’s doctor population by 2070. The research uses a model called ProMédI to project the number of doctors under 70 years old who are actively working each year from 2026 to 2070.

Projections show growing medical workforce

The study estimates that by 2040, the number of practicing doctors and third-cycle medical students will reach 351,300, with a range of 340,600 to 362,500. This would represent a 30% to 39% increase compared to 2025 figures of 261,800.

Future growth depends on current trends

If the number of students entering medical studies stays close to recent levels—about 12,200 per year—the total number of doctors and third-cycle students could rise to 464,200 by 2060. That would be a third higher than in 2040 and three quarters higher than in 2025.

International doctors contribute to projections

The study assumes that 2,500 doctors trained abroad will continue to enter the French workforce each year. This factor is included in the model’s assumptions for future growth.

Study available for public review

The full report from the Drees is accessible through the provided link, offering detailed insights into the future of the medical profession in France.