A recent survey of over 2,600 Europeans—including citizens, experts, and political decision-makers—reveals a shared belief that the European Union will make significant progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, none of the groups expect the EU to meet its legally binding goal of cutting emissions by 55% compared to 1990 levels. On average, citizens expect a 43% reduction, experts anticipate 46%, and decision-makers estimate 50%, all falling short of the 55% target by at least five percentage points. Experts believe there is only a 14% chance the EU will meet the 55% target, while decision-makers are slightly more optimistic, estimating a 29% chance. Citizens, however, are more uncertain, with their expectations spread across a wider range of possible outcomes. Despite these differences in confidence levels, all groups agree that achieving the target is challenging. The survey found that while expectations are generally uniform across the EU, people in France express slightly more confidence in meeting the goal. Factors that contribute to optimism include trust in the European Parliament and a heightened concern about the climate. Conversely, younger people and those with less education tend to express more uncertainty about the feasibility of the targets. The findings suggest that public belief in the ability to achieve climate goals can influence the support and effectiveness of climate policies. Although the EU has already reduced emissions by 37% compared to 1990 levels, current policies are projected to result in a reduction of no more than 47% by 2030. To reach the 55% target, planned measures would need to be fully implemented. The survey also highlights a possible gap between climate experts and decision-makers on one side, and the general public on the other. Experts and decision-makers appear to underestimate the level of public pessimism and uncertainty. This disconnect could affect the credibility and success of future climate policies, especially as the EU sets new targets for 2040 and aims for carbon neutrality by 2050.