Milk collection holds despite summer challenges

Despite high temperatures and drought, milk collection remained stable this summer, according to the October Trends from Idele. However, factors like low forage stocks and rising costs are creating uncertainty for the end of the year.

Summer production remained stable

Although delayed calvings from 2025 were expected to boost milk production, the summer of 2026 saw only a 0.4% increase compared to the previous year. This was due to heat and drought, which hurt pasture quality and forage yields.

Forage shortages threaten winter

Idele reports that forage stocks are critically low, with maize yields dropping by 10 to 70% in some areas. Many farmers have already used their winter reserves, and the situation varies widely across regions and farms.

Farmers face rising costs and low prices

Milk prices are still below 2025 levels, while feed and energy costs have risen sharply. Some farmers have had to buy forage at high prices, and the cost of concentrated feed has further increased production expenses.

Dairy reforms progress slowly

Dairy cow reforms have seen only minor progress so far. However, forage shortages, rising feed prices, and low milk prices could push more farmers to reform their herds, according to Idele.

Milk collection may decline in the final quarter

After a 2% increase in the first nine months of the year, milk collection could fall in the last quarter due to forage shortages. Automation in dairy farming might help maintain production levels, though.

Milk prices show slight recovery

Although milk prices have been declining since October 2025, there was a slight increase in September and October. This may be due to higher prices for skimmed milk powder and rising production costs.

Rising costs hurt farm margins

Production costs have continued to climb this summer, with energy prices up 42.2% and purchased feed increasing by 5.3%. The MILC margin, which measures profitability, has fallen for the tenth consecutive month, reaching 149 €/1,000 l in August.

Other costs not fully accounted for

The MILC margin does not include rising salary costs, third-party work, or financial fees compared to 2025. Additionally, the growing expense of investments, especially in robotic systems, is not reflected in the indicator.