IMF warns of AI's impact on employment

The director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has raised concerns about how artificial intelligence (AI) could disrupt global employment and economies. She described AI’s influence as a "progressive tsunami," noting that it could transform or eliminate approximately 40% of global jobs, according to the IMF.

AI's potential benefits and risks

Georgieva acknowledged that AI could boost the US GDP by 32% by 2030, as estimated by Anthropic. However, she also warned that AI might create financial instability for workers in several professions, even as it increases productivity and potentially widens societal inequalities.

Young people face early challenges

Georgieva emphasized that young people entering the job market are among the first to feel the effects of AI-driven changes. She expressed concern that the disappearance of entry-level positions could limit them to roles such as "a barista in a cafe," stressing the need for reforms to address these challenges.

Singapore's employment concerns

Singapore’s president, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, noted a decline in the full-time employment rate of university graduates, from 79.4% in 2024 to 74.4% in 2025. He warned that young graduates waiting to enter the workforce might lose more than a year of skills and their confidence in the future.

Global protests and employment forecasts

Concerns over deteriorating job prospects have led to student protests in France since September 18, 2026. The World Bank’s president, Ajay Banga, estimates that 1.2 billion young people will reach the age of 18 over the next fifteen years, and that the private sector will have to absorb most of them.

AI's impact on specific professions

A study by the United States Census Bureau found that fields like computer science, mathematics, statistics, and journalism are among those most affected by AI. The study noted a "clear deterioration" in career prospects, with initial employment probabilities decreasing by 5% and initial earnings falling by 13% for some specializations.

Calls for government action

International leaders urge governments to prepare for labor market disruptions rather than waiting for crises. Georgieva emphasized that education systems must adapt to a world where workers need to constantly update their skills. She also highlighted the budgetary consequences of reduced employment on government revenues.

Learning from past crises

Tharman Shanmugaratnam suggested drawing on public policies used during the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic to support workers through this transition. While some leaders express caution, others, like Sam Altman of OpenAI, admit they were wrong in predicting more job losses from AI.

Optimism and productivity gains

Dario Amodei of Anthropic suggested that automating 90% of a task could allow employees to focus on the remaining 10%, multiplying their productivity by ten. Donald Trump, meanwhile, believes AI will create so many jobs that robots may be needed to fill them.

Wealth distribution and economic risks

Economists warn that AI could shift wealth distribution, with labor’s share of income potentially decreasing from 60% to 45%, while capital’s share increases. Bill Gates has called for urgent government action, including robot taxes and legal protections for certain jobs, to prevent economic catastrophe.

Calls for regulation and international cooperation

Dario Amodei and others advocate for slowing AI development to secure models against existential risks. This proposal includes independent monitoring and international regulation, though it faces challenges in competing with China’s advancements in the field.