IMF forecasts 3% global growth in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the global economy will grow by 3% in 2026, despite ongoing energy challenges. This forecast is supported by significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, particularly in Asia.

AI investments benefit Asian economies

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that AI investments are primarily boosting Asian economies. Countries like Thailand supply much of the AI infrastructure, and these investments are expected to raise growth rates in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point.

Global meetings in Bangkok

Georgieva made these remarks during the first day of a week-long series of meetings in Bangkok, organized by the IMF and the World Bank. Approximately 18,000 people, including finance officials from 191 IMF member countries, are expected to attend the event.

High-profile absences

Some high-ranking officials, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spain's Finance Minister Arcadi España, will not attend, as they focus on national priorities. Despite these absences, the meetings will still address key global economic issues.

AI's impact on employment

Georgieva described AI as a "slow-moving tsunami" that will significantly affect employment, growth, and tax revenues. She noted that AI could lead to the transformation or elimination of 40% of jobs in the long term, with 10% of U.S. jobs already requiring AI skills.

AI's influence on the workforce

Georgieva emphasized that AI is changing the way people work and live. She mentioned that an AI assistant sends her a daily message about her schedule, illustrating the technology's integration into daily life.

Asia's role in AI development

The United States, China, and India are leading the AI supply chain, but many of the companies developing AI infrastructure are based in Asia. Thailand, the host of this year's IMF and World Bank meetings, is an example of this trend.

Focus on small AI for emerging markets

World Bank President Ajay Banga highlighted the potential of "small AI" to improve productivity in emerging markets. This includes applications in farming, healthcare, and education, which do not rely on large language models.

Concerns about youth employment

Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that AI could reduce demand for entry-level jobs, creating a challenge for young graduates. He urged governments to act to ensure AI contributes to job creation rather than widening economic gaps.

Call for proactive AI policies

Shanmugaratnam stressed that if governments remain passive, AI could deepen the divide between developed and developing economies. He called for using AI to create jobs that allow people to thrive professionally alongside the technology.