On October 7 in Singapore, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gave a preparatory speech for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which will be held in Bangkok from October 12 to 18. These meetings, hosted for the first time in Thailand since 1991, come at a time when the Asia-Pacific region has grown significantly in economic influence. According to Georgieva, the region's share of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) has risen from 25 percent to 43 percent since the last time the meetings were held in Thailand. Georgieva identified three main forces shaping the global economy: the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), sustained high energy prices, and record levels of public debt. She explained that the world economy is being pulled in two different directions. On one side, conflicts in the Middle East are causing a negative supply shock, reducing the availability of goods and services. On the other side, the growth of AI is creating a positive demand shock, boosting consumption and investment. However, she emphasized that these opposing forces have had uneven effects on different countries. In terms of technology, Georgieva highlighted that AI-related goods and products now make up more than 10 percent of global trade. The United States, China, and India are major importers of this equipment, using it to build their technological infrastructure. She also noted that investments in AI could surpass those in major historical infrastructure projects like railways and telecommunications. However, she warned that the concentration of market power in a few large companies could be risky. These companies need to deliver productivity and profits that justify their high valuations, or else market disappointment could trigger broader financial instability. On the energy front, Georgieva described a continued tense situation. At the time of her speech, oil prices were around $100 per barrel, despite slow recovery in production from the Gulf region. Disruptions in refining capacity are also increasing the cost of some petroleum products, such as diesel, by about $100 per barrel in refining margins. This margin reflects the difference between the value of refined products and the cost of crude oil, and does not directly translate to a rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas supply remains disrupted due to threats to the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IMF. The upcoming heating season in the Northern Hemisphere will also increase demand for energy. Georgieva also mentioned this year's 'super El Niño' weather pattern as a potential risk for food supplies. Facing these challenges, Georgieva urged central banks to maintain a cautiously restrictive approach to monetary policy, depending on their national situations. She also called on governments to implement credible plans to reduce budget deficits, even if it means facing political difficulties. According to the IMF, global public debt is approaching 100 percent of GDP, a level not seen since World War II. Georgieva warned that this threshold will soon be exceeded, with advanced economies being the most affected. She also noted growing interest rate differences between European countries and Germany, as well as among nations that had reduced their debt after the European debt crisis. She stressed that future economic growth, even if driven by AI, may not be enough to resolve current budgetary challenges. Finally, Georgieva advocated for reforms that support economic growth, such as improving workforce skills and making it easier to start and close businesses. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the IMF's 191 member countries will meet in Bangkok next week to discuss these and other pressing economic issues.