On October 4, 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to keep its oil production quotas unchanged for November 2026. This decision came despite ongoing market tensions and a noticeable gap between the planned output and actual production. As a result, oil prices remain high, with the Brent crude benchmark staying above $100 per barrel, compared to $73 in February 2026, before the Middle East conflict began. During a video conference on October 4, the seven major OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—chose to keep their production targets the same for November. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two largest producers, continue with their quotas of 10.478 million and 9.949 million barrels per day, respectively. However, these figures are largely symbolic. Since Israeli-American airstrikes on Iran in February 2026, oil exports from the Gulf have dropped to between 60% and 80% of normal levels. Damaged oil infrastructure requires expensive and time-consuming repairs, which are delaying the return to full production. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a group that advises OPEC+ on production matters, acknowledged that restoring the damaged facilities is both costly and time-consuming, which is affecting the supply of oil. Raising the official quotas would only widen the gap between what is promised and what is actually produced. Therefore, OPEC+ prefers to maintain the appearance of stability rather than admitting its inability to meet the production targets. In August 2026, the seven main OPEC+ members produced 25 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels compared to July. However, this is still 5 million barrels per day below the levels seen before the war began. Despite the quota increases decided this year, OPEC+ now produces about a fifth less than it did in February 2026. Analysts from UBS have pointed out that actual production remains below the official quotas, which keeps some level of tension in the oil market. The theoretical targets do not reflect the real-world disruptions caused by geopolitical events. The planned voluntary reductions of 2 million barrels per day, which were supposed to last until the end of 2026, are actually due to the damage to infrastructure. For French households, the frozen quotas mean that fuel prices and heating bills will stay high until the end of the year. Each $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil leads to a 7 to 8 cent increase per liter at the pump, though this change takes four to six weeks to take effect. The continued high price of Brent crude increases the cost of fuels, heating oil, and transported goods. This energy inflation also affects the cost of food and manufactured goods, as transportation and production costs rise and are passed on to consumers. Lower-income households are hit the hardest, as they spend a larger share of their budget on transportation and heating. Government assistance helps to some extent, but it is not enough to fully counteract the rising costs.