Le Pen leads in first round

Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (Rassemblement national) collects 37% of the voting intentions at the first round, nearly twice as much as her two main competitors, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe. Her lead is significant, with Mélenchon at 18% and Philippe at 17%.

Regional differences in support

Le Pen achieves her best scores in the Hauts-de-France (44%), the Grand Est (43%), and in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and Corsica (42%), where she exceeds the 40% threshold. In contrast, in Île-de-France, her support is lower at 22%, where Mélenchon leads with 26%.

Mélenchon surpasses Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon crosses the threshold of 18% of voting intentions in the first round, two points higher than in May, and moves ahead of Édouard Philippe, who is at 17%. The one-point gap is symbolically important, though Le Pen remains far ahead.

Hypothetical candidates tested

Odoxa tested two hypotheses for the first round. With Édouard Philippe, Le Pen's score remains at 37%. With Gabriel Attal, she reaches 38%, ahead of Mélenchon (18.5%) and Bruno Retailleau (9%). The president of the Renaissance party peaks at 11%, while Attal is preferred by 38% of the French compared to 30% for Philippe.

Right-wing struggles

On the right, Bruno Retailleau is credited with only 6.5%, a drop from May. He retains an advantage over David Lisnard as a candidate but faces challenges. The situation is concerning for LR, and a possible alliance with Philippe is discussed to help him qualify.

Second round against Mélenchon

In the hypothetical second round against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Le Pen would win clearly with 68% of the voting intentions against 32% for Mélenchon. However, 37% of voters are still undecided or considering blank or null votes, and only 20% are certain to vote for Mélenchon compared to 43% for Le Pen.

Second round against Philippe

Against Édouard Philippe, Le Pen would still win with 53% of the voting intentions, but the gap is smaller at 6%. Here, 32% of voters are certain to choose Philippe, compared to 36% for Le Pen, a difference of only four points. Her base of loyalists shrinks from 43% to 36%.

Poll limitations

The reserve of undecided voters and blank or null votes, higher than the gap between already convinced voters, reminds us that polls are snapshots, not results. The survey was conducted online from September 24 to October 7, 2026, on a sample of 12,005 French people aged 18 and over, with a margin of error between 0.6 and 1.2 points.