Rising support for National Rally

A wave of support for the National Rally (RN) has grown following the urban violence of October 17 and 18, 2026. The party's leader, Marine Le Pen, is now seen as the clear favorite in the upcoming 2027 presidential election, according to a recent survey conducted by IFOP and Fiducial for several French media outlets.

Le Pen’s surge in voting intentions

In the survey, Marine Le Pen jumps to 36 percent of the voting intentions in the first round, a score previously only reached by Jordan Bardella. This is a 2-point increase compared to a survey from October 12–14 and a 4-point rise since the end of September.

Le Pen dominates second-round duels

In the second round, the shift is most spectacular: Marine Le Pen now comfortably wins all the tested duels. She would obtain 56 percent against Édouard Philippe, 58 percent against Gabriel Attal, and 68 percent against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, showing a significant rise in her favorability.

Center bloc candidates face decline

For the former prime ministers of Emmanuel Macron, the sequence is particularly punishing. Édouard Philippe suffers a marked decline, dropping to 12 percent of the votes in a first-round scenario with Gabriel Attal, compared to 14 percent in mid-October and 16 percent at the end of September.

Gabriel Attal’s erosion

Gabriel Attal also suffers a similar erosion. Credited with only 5 percent of the voting intentions in the presence of Édouard Philippe, he rises to 13 percent when he alone carries the colors of the presidential majority. However, in a second-round duel against Marine Le Pen, he is significantly outpaced with 42 percent against 58 percent for the RN candidate.

Mélenchon and Glucksmann’s positions

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise, shows unwavering stability after the events of October 17, with 16.5 percent of the voting intentions in the first round. Raphaël Glucksmann, meanwhile, consolidates his status as the leader of the social-democratic left, gathering 13.5 percent of the votes in the general scenario.

François Hollande’s decline

François Hollande, the former president, collects only 10 percent in the first round in a scenario of a moderate left union. However, his image as a second-round candidate is heavily affected, collapsing to 41 percent against Marine Le Pen, conceding 5 points in two months.

David Lisnard’s rise on the right

On the republican right, David Lisnard confirms "something is happening." Credited with 5.5 percent in an expanded configuration, the mayor of Cannes rises to 7 percent if designated as the sole candidate of the traditional right, positioning himself as a solid alternative for the reconstruction of the right.

Survey methodology

The survey was conducted by Ifop for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio from October 17 to October 19, 2026, among a sample of 1,928 people registered on the electoral lists. Error margins range between 1.0 and 2.2 points depending on the observed percentages.