Violence impacts electoral dynamics

The violence on October 17th has had a limited but real effect on the electoral dynamic, primarily to the detriment of the central bloc, according to multiple analyses. This event, which saw demonstrations escalate in Paris and several other major cities, is considered a turning point in the presidential campaign as the 2027 election approaches.

Public reaction to the violence

A near-unanimous condemnation of the violence was reported, with 91% of the French condemning it, according to an Elabe survey for BFMTV, though 24% said they understood it, with higher percentages among those aged 18-24 and supporters of La France insoumise. According to an Odoxa survey for Public Sénat, anger was the main feeling for 67% of those questioned, ahead of helplessness (19%) and fear (12%).

Blame for the violence

An Odoxa-Backbone survey for Le Figaro found that 77% of the French attribute responsibility for the violence to the government, and 74% to Emmanuel Macron. La France insoumise is also blamed by 69% of them. According to Ipsos BVA, 81% consider the government responsible for not responding sufficiently to social demands, while 79% point to "radical political groups." LFI is also considered responsible by 97% of Renaissance supporters and 88% of those from the National Rally.

Public confidence in political leaders

Marine Le Pen enjoys the confidence of 39% of the French to ensure the safety of people and property, surpassing Bruno Retailleau (27%) and David Lisnard (25%). According to Odoxa-Backbone, 47% also believe she can "restore order." However, no political leader benefits from the confidence of a majority. Five institutes have questioned voters before and after the events, and one camp emerges very weakened.

Polling changes after the events

The comparison of the polls shows that the only movement common to all concerns the central bloc. Edouard Philippe stagnates or loses up to 3 points (-1.8 on average), Gabriel Attal from 0.5 to 4 points (-1.5). Marine Le Pen will be the great political beneficiary of the incidents for 74% of the French, far ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (32%), Bruno Retailleau (13%), Edouard Philippe (7%) and Gabriel Attal (6%).

Polling trends for candidates

According to Odoxa, the adhesion rating of the RN candidate progresses by 3 points. Over the last month, those of Edouard Philippe (-3) and Gabriel Attal (-4) decrease. For Marine Le Pen, the expected gain remains limited to +0.8 point. With Ifop, she advances by 2 points, going from 34% to 36%, in a study started on the evening of October 17th. Compared to the mid-September wave, Cluster17 measures an increase of 1.5 to 2 points.

Rival candidates’ performance

In the other surveys, she does not move. In the first round, the voting intentions in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon remain unchanged, despite the blame on his movement: +0.1 point on average. If one in three French people believes he benefits from the sequence, seven out of ten even consider him responsible. Raphaël Glucksmann advances or remains stable in all cases, with an increase ranging from 0 to 3 points. He may also benefit from his victory in the socialist primary.

Second-round lead for Le Pen

According to Toluna, Marine Le Pen increases her lead over Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round: 70% against 67%. The sequence allows no political leader to capitalize massively. The dynamic remains favorable to the candidate of the National Rally. Her chances of qualification for the second round remain currently above 80%, according to the data from the Figaro polling aggregator.