Global corn production is expected to be higher than previously thought this year, especially in the United States, according to a recent report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The report, published on Friday, led to a drop in corn prices. In its monthly WASDE report, which analyzes global supply and demand for agricultural products, the USDA estimated that global corn production could reach just over 1.29 billion tons, about 3 million tons more than previously expected. If this increase happens, the 2026-27 harvest would be the second-largest in history, following the current one. The change in forecast surprised the market, causing the price of American corn to fall by as much as 6% during the session, to 4.70 dollars per bushel (25 kg). "This report sends a strongly bearish signal for the market," said Dewey Strickler, an analyst with Ag Watch Market Advisors, who spoke to AFP. The revision in the USDA’s forecast is mainly due to an expected increase in U.S. corn production, about six million tons more than previously estimated. While the market had anticipated lower yields in the United States, the USDA believes the yields will be more favorable. Argentina and Ukraine are also expected to see an increase in their harvest potential. However, the report notes that corn production is likely to decrease in the European Union, the Philippines, and Mexico. Within the EU, France accounts for most of this decline, with corn production expected to fall by 38% compared to last year. The USDA did not directly link the expected drop in French corn production to the summer heatwaves, but its findings are close to those of French authorities. In early August, the French Ministry of Agriculture estimated that the country’s corn harvest could be the lowest since at least 1980, at 9 million tons, down 35% from the previous year. The report also includes "several bearish elements" for wheat prices, according to Strickler. U.S. wheat production estimates have been slightly increased compared to the September report (+0.19%), and exports are expected to be less significant than initially anticipated (-3.22%). The outlook for Russian wheat exports has also been reduced. The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt grain shipments through the Black Sea, a vital route for transporting grain from the region. This disruption has affected the flow of agricultural products, adding uncertainty to global markets. While the USDA’s updated forecasts bring some relief for corn producers in the U.S. and other regions, they highlight the continued challenges faced by countries experiencing lower yields due to weather and geopolitical factors.