Third quarter profits expected to rise

TotalEnergies is preparing to report significantly higher profits for the third quarter of 2026, with analysts predicting a net profit of 8.9 billion dollars, up from 5.4 billion dollars in the second quarter. This increase is expected to be driven by rising fuel prices linked to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

LNG sector profits to double

According to Ahmed Ben Salem, a petroleum and gas specialist at ODDO BHF, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector is expected to see its profits double due to rising gas prices and increased trading activities. The Refining and Chemistry branch is also projected to generate more than 3.5 billion dollars in profits, with refining margins jumping 146% compared to the previous quarter.

Supply tensions drive refining margins

The increase in refining margins is attributed to the gap between the price of crude oil and refined products like gasoline and diesel. This gap has been driven by supply tensions, with approximately 10% of global refining capacity affected by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This shortage has allowed oil companies to raise prices, benefiting not only TotalEnergies but also other major firms like Shell and BP.

Criticism over 'superprofits'

TotalEnergies has faced criticism for its "superprofits" in previous quarters, with accusations of being a "war profiteer" from labor unions. In response, the company has implemented price caps on fuel at its 3,300 French service stations, setting gasoline at 1.99 euros per liter and diesel at 2.25 euros per liter. The cost of this measure is estimated at around 500 million euros, which the company describes as an investment to improve its public image.

Corporate taxes and employee support

The company has also announced plans to pay corporate taxes in the order of 600 million euros in 2026. Internally, TotalEnergies has shown support for employee purchasing power, announcing a bonus advance of 1,000 euros gross for its employees and measures to promote employee shareholding and extend fuel discounts to its workers.

Complaints over market dominance

The price cap has helped TotalEnergies increase its market share in fuel distribution to over 30%, which has led to complaints from other industry players who have filed with the Competition Authority over "abuse of dominant position and unfair competition." Several NGOs have also called for demonstrations near the National Assembly to advocate for taxing the "superprofits" of fossil fuel companies to fund public services, the ecological transition, and support for households.