With the first round of the French presidential election set for April 18, 2027, current polls indicate that Marine Le Pen of the National Rally is leading in all published surveys for both the first and second rounds, regardless of who her opponent might be. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Unbowed and Édouard Philippe of Horizons are closely matched for the first round, with both polling around 16-17%. Gabriel Attal of Renaissance and Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, a socialist primary candidate, are polling at an average of 10-11%, ahead of Bruno Retailleau of The Republicans, who is at about 8%. Notably, Gabriel Attal’s support fluctuates depending on whether Édouard Philippe is in the race, with his score ranging from 12 to 15.5% when Philippe is not a contender, and 5 to 9% when he is. Historical data from the last five presidential elections (2002 to 2022) shows that the candidate leading in the polls 200 days before the first round has won the first round in four out of five cases. However, the anticipated second-round matchups 200 days before the election have only come true in three of those elections: Nicolas Sarkozy versus Ségolène Royal in 2007, François Hollande versus Sarkozy in 2012, and Emmanuel Macron versus Marine Le Pen in 2022. In the other two elections, the expected second-round candidates did not materialize—Jean-Marie Le Pen instead of Lionel Jospin in 2002 and Macron instead of Alain Juppé in 2017. Polls conducted 200 days before the first round have not always predicted the final outcomes accurately. In three of the last five elections, the polls gave a score close to that obtained by the candidate of the National Front/National Rally in the first round. Jean-Marie Le Pen was underestimated in the 2007 election, while Marine Le Pen was overestimated in 2017. In contrast, Mélenchon’s polling figures at this stage of the campaign have consistently underestimated his final first-round results across his three candidatures. Jean-Yves Dormagen and others have pointed out that Bruno Retailleau and Dominique de Villepin, who has not yet officially declared his candidacy, have a broad but "mou" (weak) electoral potential. While their candidacy may be conceivable for a significant portion of the electorate, it is not often a priority for voters.